Machine Learning and Meteorological Normalization for Assessment of Particulate Matter Changes during the COVID-19 Lockdown in Zagreb, Croatia.

In this paper, the authors investigated changes in mass concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during the Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown. Daily samples of PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 fractions were measured at an urban background sampling site in Zagreb, Croatia from 2009 to late 2020. For the purpose of meteorological normalization, the mass concentrations were fed alongside meteorological and temporal data to Random Forest (RF) and LightGBM (LGB) models tuned by Bayesian optimization. The models' predictions were subsequently de-weathered by meteorological normalization using repeated random resampling of all predictive variables except the trend variable. Three pollution periods in 2020 were examined in detail: January and February, as pre-lockdown, the month of April as the lockdown period, as well as June and July as the "new normal". An evaluation using normalized mass concentrations of particulate matter and Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was conducted. The results showed that no significant differences were observed for PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 in April 2020-compared to the same period in 2018 and 2019. No significant changes were observed for the "new normal" as well. The results thus indicate that a reduction in mobility during COVID-19 lockdown in Zagreb, Croatia, did not significantly affect particulate matter concentration in the long-term..

COVID-19 Lockdowns-Effect on Concentration of Pharmaceuticals and Illicit Drugs in Two Major Croatian Rivers.

In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, contingency measures in the form of lockdowns were implemented all over the world, including in Croatia. The aim of this study was to detect if those severe, imposed restrictions of social interactions reflected on the water quality of rivers receiving wastewaters from urban areas. A total of 18 different pharmaceuticals (PhACs) and illicit drugs (IDrgs), as well as their metabolites, were measured for 16 months (January 2020-April 2021) in 12 different locations at in the Sava and Drava Rivers, Croatia, using UHPLC coupled to LCMS. This period encompassed two major Covid lockdowns (March-May 2020 and October 2020-March 2021). Several PhACs more than halved in river water mass flow during the lockdowns. The results of this study confirm that Covid lockdowns caused lower cumulative concentrations and mass flow of measured PhACs/IDrgs in the Sava and Drava Rivers. This was not influenced by the increased use of drugs for the treatment of the COVID-19, like antibiotics and steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The decreases in measured PhACs/IDrgs concentrations and mass flows were more pronounced during the first lockdown, which was stricter than the second.

Understanding the true effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on air pollution by means of machine learning.

During March 2020, most European countries implemented lockdowns to restrict the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19 through their populations. These restrictions had positive impacts for air quality due to a dramatic reduction of economic activity and atmospheric emissions. In this work, a machine learning approach was designed and implemented to analyze local air quality improvements during the COVID-19 lockdown in Graz, Austria. The machine learning approach was used as a robust alternative to simple, historical measurement comparisons for various individual pollutants. Concentrations of NO2 (nitrogen dioxide), PM10 (particulate matter), O3 (ozone) and Ox (total oxidant) were selected from five measurement sites in Graz and were set as target variables for random forest regression models to predict their expected values during the city's lockdown period. The true vs. expected difference is presented here as an indicator of true pollution during the lockdown. The machine learning models showed a high level of generalization for predicting the concentrations. Therefore, the approach was suitable for analyzing reductions in pollution concentrations. The analysis indicated that the city's average concentration reductions for the lockdown period were: -36.9 to -41.6%, and -6.6 to -14.2% for NO2 and PM10, respectively. However, an increase of 11.6-33.8% for O3 was estimated. The reduction in pollutant concentration, especially NO2 can be explained by significant drops in traffic-flows during the lockdown period (-51.6 to -43.9%). The results presented give a real-world example of what pollutant concentration reductions can be achieved by reducing traffic-flows and other economic activities.